The Kenya Dairy Board says milk remains available despite temporary shortages in some areas, as formal deliveries to processors fell 3.7% between June and July 2026, with relief expected once the October-December rains begin.
Kenyans walking into their local shops in search of their usual milk brand may have noticed something off in recent weeks — thinner stocks, missing pack sizes, or shelves that take longer than usual to restock. The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) has now confirmed what many consumers suspected: the country is experiencing temporary milk supply constraints, though officials insist the situation is under control and not a full-blown crisis.
In a statement issued on Tuesday, September 1, KDB Managing Director Dr. William Maritim moved to reassure the public. "Kenya Dairy Board wishes to reassure the public, consumers and dairy industry stakeholders that milk continues to be available in the market, despite temporary supply constraints being experienced in some parts of the country," he said.
The Numbers Behind the Squeeze
The Board's own data tells a clear story of decline. Formal milk deliveries to processors dropped by 3.7 per cent, falling from 84.4 million litres in June 2026 to 81.3 million litres in July. KDB says it is still compiling formal intake figures for August, but early indications point to yet another drop. "Preliminary indications suggest a further decline in milk deliveries, reflecting the prevailing seasonal production conditions," Maritim added.
Market surveillance carried out by the Board has picked up on the impact at the retail level — low stock levels, missing brands and pack sizes, and delays in restocking at various outlets across the country. Not all milk products have suffered equally, though. Pasteurised milk has taken the biggest hit, while long-life alternatives such as extended shelf-life (ESL) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk have remained comparatively easier to find.
What's Driving the Shortage
KDB points squarely to the weather. Dry and cold conditions in the country's key milk-producing regions have hit pasture and fodder availability hard, and with less to feed on, dairy cows are simply producing less milk. It's a seasonal pattern the industry has seen before, but this year it's coincided with rising pressure from other directions — farmer groups and consumer advocates have flagged a sharper-than-usual squeeze, with smallholder farmers, who account for the bulk of the country's milk production, reporting daily yields nearly halving in some cases, compounded by a steep rise in the cost of commercial animal feed.
The Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) has been especially vocal, pushing the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Treasury and KDB for urgent action to stabilise supply and prices. Some Nairobi retailers have reportedly begun rationing milk purchases, and isolated price increases have been recorded even as KDB maintains that retail prices have broadly held steady nationwide.
When Will Things Improve?
KDB is banking on the weather turning in its favour. The Board expects relief once the October-November-December (OND) 2026 rainfall season sets in, which should replenish pasture and fodder and, in turn, lift milk production back up. "The outlook for the October-November-December 2026 rainfall season is expected to support recovery in pasture and fodder availability, leading to improved milk production and supply as conditions become more favourable," the Board said.
In the meantime, the government says it isn't sitting idle. KDB points to ongoing efforts to strengthen the dairy value chain, including the rollout of milk coolers to improve how milk is collected and preserved before it reaches processors. There's also a push to improve the productivity of dairy herds through subsidised sexed semen, a longer-term intervention aimed at building a more resilient national herd.
For now, consumers are being urged not to panic — milk is still on the shelves, just not always in the brand or pack size they're used to. Whether that reassurance holds will likely depend on how quickly the rains arrive, and how fast farmers can get their herds back to full production.