Kenya Met's forecast for October 18-22 shows Nairobi highs of 29°C, thunderstorms in the western highlands, Lake Victoria basin and parts of the Rift Valley, and warm, humid weather in Mombasa.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) released its forecast for October 18 to October 22, 2026. It expects light showers in Nairobi on Thursday night, but the capital stays largely dry while other parts of the country brace for wet weather.
The meteorological office forecasts light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorms in at least five regions. The western highlands, the Lake Victoria basin and parts of the Rift Valley will see afternoon and evening thunder and lightning.
Kisumu County is among the regions expecting wetter conditions, with regular afternoon and evening light-to-moderate rain accompanied by thunder and lightning. Kisii, Nyamira, Homa Bay, Siaya, Bungoma and Vihiga counties will see similar weather.
In the Nairobi metropolitan area, Kiambu will have mostly sunny intervals through the week, with daytime highs of up to 26°C. The Met office says occasional light showers or brief rains may break out on some afternoons and nights, particularly heading into Monday and Tuesday.
Kajiado will see light showers on Wednesday afternoon but is otherwise dry. Day temperatures will be warm, between 27°C and 28°C, with cooler nights dropping to as low as 10°C early in the week.
Machakos mornings will start clear, with light rain expected during the day or night on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will stay warm, with highs of 29°C and lows of 13°C.
Mombasa will have warm, humid tropical weather, with early morning light showers that quickly clear into sunny intervals. Skies will be partly cloudy at night. Temperatures will peak at 31°C, with lows of 24°C.
KMSA Acting Director Edward Muriuki urged communities and sector stakeholders to make use of the updates.
"We urge communities and sector stakeholders in affected zones to make use of these timely updates to safeguard lives, protect livelihoods, and adapt effectively to shifting weather patterns," Muriuki stated.
For residents of the thunderstorm-prone western regions, that means taking care during afternoon and evening storms. Farmers, transporters and event organisers across the country may also want to plan around the forecast.