A new CBK survey shows mixed food price trends ahead, with staples like rice, flour and sugar set to rise over global supply concerns, while vegetable prices ease.
Kenyan households, students and workers are bracing for a mixed bag at the market in the coming weeks, as a new Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) survey paints a picture of rising prices for key staples even as several vegetables and fresh farm produce are expected to get cheaper.
Staples Set to Rise on Global Supply Worries
The CBK's Agriculture Sector Survey for May 2026 found that respondents expect prices of several core food items in the Consumer Price Index basket to climb over the next month. The anticipated increases are largely tied to anxiety over how the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt global supply chains feeding into Kenya's import-dependent food categories.
Commodities flagged for likely price hikes include rice varieties, bread, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar, cooking oil, cooking fat and packaged milk, items that form the backbone of many Kenyan households' monthly shopping lists. The survey linked these expectations to mounting concern over rising global oil prices and ongoing disruptions in shipping routes, both of which continue to shape how Kenyans view the cost trajectory of imported and processed foods.
Vegetables and Fresh Produce Buck the Trend
Even as staples look set to get pricier, the outlook brightens considerably for fresh food items. CBK indicated that prices of spinach, sukuma wiki, traditional vegetables and unpackaged fresh milk are expected to fall, as improved harvests push more supply into local markets.
This expected relief traces back to favourable rainfall recorded during the March-May 2026 long rains season, which boosted agricultural output across multiple farming regions. Tomatoes, onions, potatoes, carrots, green maize, maize grain and green grams are also tipped to benefit from improved supply, though the survey noted that expectations on this front varied by region.
Not everyone shares the same optimism, however. The survey noted in part that some respondents were less confident about the sector's near-term prospects, pointing out that the early onset of rainfall in February 2026 had disrupted land preparation in certain areas, a factor that could dampen output where it struck hardest.
Inflation Worries Ease Slightly, but Remain High
While concerns over rising prices haven't disappeared, they have softened somewhat compared to recent months. About 65 percent of respondents now expect inflation to rise in the coming month, a notable drop from the 81 percent recorded in April. That shift suggests improving food supplies in some categories may be starting to cushion consumers from the harshest cost pressures, even as global uncertainty lingers.
Transport Costs Remain the Biggest Culprit
Despite the cautious optimism on the inflation front, one factor continues to dominate concerns across the board: transport costs. A striking 95 percent of survey respondents identified transport as a major driver behind food prices in both retail and wholesale markets, underscoring just how central logistics and fuel costs remain to Kenya's food pricing puzzle.
Beyond transport, respondents also pointed to weather conditions, input costs, labour expenses and supply chain disruptions as significant factors shaping food prices nationwide, a reminder that Kenya's food economy remains vulnerable to a wide mix of local and global pressures simultaneously.
Agriculture Sector Optimism Holds Firm
Even with global headwinds weighing on staple food costs, confidence in the broader agriculture sector has remained notably strong. More than 80 percent of respondents said they expect improved agricultural performance over both the next three months and the coming year, citing favourable weather patterns and the continued impact of government support programmes for farmers.
That sustained optimism suggests many in the sector view current global disruptions as a temporary headwind rather than a long-term threat, with local production conditions still seen as a strong enough buffer to keep Kenya's broader food security outlook on solid footing.